Lester Golden
1 min readApr 26, 2023

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You're mixing up refined products with crude and LNG and pipeline gas. EU natural gas prices are down 85% from the peak, while Russia has lost its biggest customer forever. The oil traders, African countries and middlemen Russia is trading with to keep the oil flowing are also defaulting on payments.

Russia's pipelines to China only cover 10% of its gas production and Russia lacks the expertise to build out LNG infrastructure. Building new pipelines to China will take more than 10 years. Russia will be capping lots of wells.

And the discount India and China get on Russian crude is $20-35/barrel.

And Germany has already built out its LNG infrastructure in record time.

These videos use official Russian Min Fin figures to show how desperate their situation is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWJKKkGve_Q&t=236s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=By9fcFMMHko&t=106s

Never mind that they're not even publishing basic econ stats anymore since they know that nobody believes them anyway.

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Lester Golden
Lester Golden

Written by Lester Golden

From Latvia & Porto I write to share learning from an academic&business life in 8 languages in 5 countries & seeing fascism die in Portugal&Spain in1974 & 1976.

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