Ukraine is on an exit ramp from geopolitical serfdom. Putin is determined to block the exit. If he can't enserf Ukraine, he is determined to burn the estate--wreck this threat of the good example pointed at the heart of his kleptocracy (Mearsheimer's thesis).

Putin will try to exploit Ukrainian nationalism to justify intervention: asymmetric disinformation warfare driven chaotic protests against Minsk agreement compromises. Throw in some false flag terrorism and assassinations of diplomats and politicians negotiating Minsk compromises. Putin knows that the Germans who want Nordstream 2 will try to push Zelensky into politically explosive concessions.

Low cost, yield management escalation of hybrid warfare will use Ukrainian nationalism against Ukraine. Where will false flag chaos yield the most: Odessa, Mariupol and Berdyansk, whose loss turns Ukraine into a landlocked country. How will MHP export its chickens to Egypt, Saudi and the UAE then? I'll try to refrain from gallows economics humor about Ukraine as the first country to see a boomlet in chickens that fly.

I expect there are too many people like my IT entrepreneur friend in Kyiv who knows how this strategy works and can prevent it from succeeding.

I live outside Riga, a four hour drive from the Russian border. No go-bag packed yet. Nobody invades their own money laundromat.