This writer has bought into peak Russian military bubble from non-strategic micro-advances by Russia in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. He's made the same mistake the Japanese did on November 26, 1941 when they launched the fleet against Pearl Harbor on the assumption the Germans would take Moscow. Buying into a Russian victory scenario is like taking Kadyrov's tik-tok Chechens to be the real warriors in this conflict.
But the Russians are at a standstill in Izyum and Bakhmut. The promised encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the Donbass is no closer than before.
The antidote to the evidence-free nonsense that Russia is winning the war is to channel (supply chain) check the Russian side like you would any investment. This can be done through Russian social media and what their military does. The facts are:
* They're in a panic over HIMARS and the 30 ammo depots already blown up. Ukraine now has 20 HIMARS vs the 8 that sent the Russians into a panic two weeks ago. This means many units will get their artillery shells delivered late or not at all because they'll have to offload smaller shipments onto trucks. All liveUA war maps show a substantial decrease in shelling compared to the day Severodonetsk fell.
* The Russian navy has relocated lots of ships from Sebastopol to the Sea of Azov.
* Russia lost Snake Island and multiple landing craft they prepared for an amphibious assault on Odesa.
* They've raised their recruitment age limit to 60.
* Ukrainian units are advancing steadily toward Kherson, which is real strategic prize because from there Ukraine can cut Crimea's water supply and cut off supply deliveries to southern Russian units.
* With drastic capital controls, the ruble's exchange rate is meaningless as an indicator of whether sanctions are biting. What counts is that Russian manufacturing is collapsing due to a shortage of western components. Avtovaz can't build tanks because it has no chips. So the Russians are now using antiquated T-62s from the 1970s.
* American and Canadian LNG will replace Russian gas. Look up Cheniere Energy.
In March we saw the probability of Russia taking Kyiv and capturing Zelensky. It's a simple number: zero.
Only a full collapse of Putin's violent predatory kleptocracy, like Tsarism's collapse in 1917, can end this war. Here's how to judge this probability: In more than 200 years Russia has never won a modern war without an alliance with a more advanced western power (WWII, against Napoleon). Putin is destined to be Crimea Loser 2.0, joining Nicholas I, whose portrait hangs in his office. Just as Nicholas II met his destiny in Tsushima in 1905, Putin will meet his in Kherson.
To forecast outcomes, know the rules of Russian history.
