There is no winter pause: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PI3PpsM3NOI
Both sides have a long history of fighting winter warfare. So I don't understand why you write about a winter pause as if it's a fait accompli requiring no proof or evidence.
Milley went to Princeton and I went to Hampshire College. As an undergraduate he took traditional exams and I spent six months in Spanish Civil War archives and interviewing exiled Spanish Civil War veterans in the south of France (Montady, near Beziers).
In February Milley thought Ukraine would fold in 3-4 days. I, my Ukrainian friends and my veteran British and American army officers friends on the Borderlands podcast disagreed. I'll let you conclude who's the better forecaster. You can backtest my Borderlands friends by reading my articles with the transcripts.
"opportunity for a peace agreement": Milley's comment was contingent, not an assumption that the opportunity to negotiate was actually there:
"“When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it. Seize the moment,” Milley said....In internal deliberations, officials said Milley has sought to make it clear that he is not urging a Ukrainian capitulation, but rather that he believes now is an optimal time to drive toward an end to the war before it drags into spring or beyond, leading to more death and destruction without changing the front lines.
“He’s not rushing to negotiate with Russia or to press (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky,” said one official familiar with Milley’s thinking. “It’s a discussion around a pause in the fighting towards a political end state.”
Reparations, war crimes trials and western-guaranteed security for Ukraine are integral to Ukraine's negotiating position and lifting sanctions the demilitarization of Ukraine and recognition of annexations part of Russia's. So I and the Nobel Peace Prize winning Memorial/Irina Scherbakova, fail to see where the room for negotiation is. But you should tell me and Memorial/Scherbakova what I don't see in viewing these as irreconcialable opposites. What are we missing? Be specific about the steps to get there, not abstract and conceptual.
Ukraine might give on territory in Crimea in return for reparations and war crimes trials, but that would require regime change in Moscow first. A President Navalny might do that deal, but not Putin.
