Thanks for reading.
Generic objections to my thesis are easy, but don't stand up to the mountain of data supporting it. You need to channel check (dig into the weeds of the supply chain) war just as you would research a stock investment to separate signal from generic conversation-stopping noise.
Putin is more bad than mad. He knows that tactical nuclear weapons with a blast radius of 1-10km are militarily useless on 1000 km front. He also knows that breaking the nuclear taboo costs far more than its benefits. Once used to little military effect and with much fallout within Russia itself (including the newly uninhabitable annexed DNR and LNR), he'd be as exposed as the emperor in his new clothes. He also knows that if he gives the order to use a nuke that its even money whether the order will make it through the entire complex chain of command. The personnel in the Strategic Rocket Forces have families and friends in Ukraine and the DNR and LNR. It's also logical to assume that the SRF is as bad at maintaining equipment as the rest of Russia's Potemkin village military. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxOO0hCCSk4&t=283s
Russia's millions: Russian logistics is so broken that it will be unable to properly feed, clothe and equip even 300000 new low morale cannon fodder conscripts. Your estimate of Russian resources is wildly inaccurate, as the intercepted conversations of Russian soldiers prove:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPzy5fPr7RDpw_vLSPMHMgQ/videos
Putin's Chef Prigozhin recruiting in prisons and recruiting officers snatching Buryats, Dagestanis, Chechens and Yakuts out of villages tells you where this is going. A the capital of Dagestan yesterday a group of women chased away a lone police officer and another group snatched back a man the police tried to forcibly recruit. We're in December 1916 redux and another Tsushima is on the way.
Watch this video about Ukraine's use of captured equipment to take the full measure of the catastrophic incompetence of Russia's Potemkin village military: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNLTE75B0Os&t=1435s, which is now Ukraine's largest arms supplier.
Ukraine's losses: In a war for existence, like Israel in 1948 or the American Union in 1861-65, there's no such thing as unsustainable losses. Ukraine lost 4m in Stalin's genocidal Holodomor famine of 1931-33, 8m in WWII. This genocidal war movie is a rerun. Every Ukrainian knows this history and knows the alternative to victory is political and demographic erasure. If you doubt this, read Timofey Sergeytsev's April article in Ria Novosti: https://www.memri.org/reports/russian-columnist-sergeytsev-ukranian-nazism-greater-threat-world-german-nazism.
And listen to the explicit genocidal intentions from Putin mouthpieces Medvedev, Solovyov and Simonyan on youtube if you're still not convinced.
