Russian history's rules: Russia loses wars against western powers without a stronger western ally: Afghanistan, 1979-89; Russo-Japanese war, 1905; Crimea, 1856; Peter's Azov fortress fiasco in 1695–96 vs. the Ottomans. Peter won The Great Northern War against Sweden only with other western allies. Russian victories against Napoléon and Hitler were possible only in alliance with the Anglosphere's global empire and Lend Lease. If Richard Sorge, the Soviet spy in the German embassy in Tokyo, had not convinced Stalin that the Japanese were going south against the Anglo-Americans, Australians, Dutch and French Indochina, 400000 fresh troops from the Amur River border with Japanese-occupied Manchuria could not have been moved to defend the outskirts of Moscow in October and counterattack the Germans on December 5. Japan buying into the German military bubble at its top by attacking three western empires simultaneously in Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, Malaya and the Dutch East Indies saved the USSR.
America loses counterinsurgency wars, never conventional wars. But this writer can't tell the difference.
Like Japan in 1941, Russia is fighting the whole western world. The outcome will be the same.
Citing Orban to support your argument is like citing Trump on election management or quoting Erdoğan on monetary policy.
This writer also never mentions his previously inaccurate forecasts and views:
Feb 26: “the war is a manufactured distractions”
April: Ukraine is corrupt, not worth defending.
July: Russia is winning, Ukraine should surrender.
Sept: The war is a stalemate (just before the Kharkiv offensive)
Now: Ukraine can’t win.
Better to read these writers:
https://medium.com/@nadinbrzezinski/simonyan-and-the-coming-defeat-47a44d296e6b
RT editor Margarita Simonyan is now worried about ending up in The Hague.
BKean, who lived in Moscow for 30 years:
In April, knowing the Rules of Russian History I’ve studied since 1972, I forecast what we’ve seen in Kharkiv and Kherson: https://medium.com/illumination-curated/ukraines-citizen-vs-russia-s-serf-army-4f6177d5fe20
Expect a 1918 style military collapse and resumption of the implosion of the Russian empire that began in 1917. Expect Russia to be renamed Muscovy and St Petersburg and Kaliningrad to become independent EFTA city states associated with the EU after the EU offers referenda whose terms offer all their residents the right to work in the Schengen area and triples their pensions. Many things that a short time ago seemed totally outside the realm of possibility will become commonplace, as in 1989–91.
On my birthday, February 24, in 1988 I forecast the death of the Soviet empire due to the anti-Armenian pogrom in Azerbaijan.
Which analyst would you put your money on, seriously?
