In the English language I speak probable and not very likely are opposites. You're almost as good at tying yourself in intellectual knots as Trump's defense lawyers.
I'm happy to cheerlead against genocidal empires. The mystery is why you aren't.
It's no longer a mystery why Code Pink's co-founder is a cheerleader for Russian and Chinese genocidal war against Ukraine and the Uighurs: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/05/world/europe/neville-roy-singham-china-propaganda.html
I'll take your election forecasts as an encouraging contrarian indicator.
"Russia might actually prevail": Prigozhin and Girkin disagree with you. I expect the Russian sailors on the ship just torpedoed by a Ukrainian drone also disagree. So do the Russian soldiers' in these intercepted phone calls: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=insights+into+ukraine
Russian milbloggers on Telegram are far less optimistic about their military prospects than you are. But you're free to swallow what the Russian government tells you instead of reading from Volyamedia's Telegram channel:
"Details of the attack on the Olenegorsky miner large landing ship in Novorossiysk
On the night of August 3-4, a Ukrainian surface drone successfully attacked the Russian large landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak in Novorossiysk.
The ship received a hole. began to quickly take on water and, with a list to the port side, was towed to the pier. The hole was closed, water is being pumped out. There is no information about the victims. According to a source in the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, only a third of the crew was on the ship, several sailors received bruises and concussions, but no one was seriously injured or died.
BDK "Olenegorsky Miner" was built in 1976 and was assigned to the Northern Fleet. On February 9, 2022, together with three other large landing ships of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, he came through the Mediterranean Sea and the Bosphorus to the Black Sea. The BDK was planned to be used for landing operations in the area of Odessa and the Dniester Estuary, but after the sinking of the Moskva cruiser, the damage to the Admiral Essen, two landing ships in Berdyansk, the command did not dare to use the fleet for landing operations.
The attack on Novorossiysk was long overdue. The Black Sea Fleet relocated there back in mid-2022, due to constant shelling and attacks on harbors in Crimea. At the same time, Novorossiysk was considered safe in the Russian Navy and the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, because Ukrainian surface drones (or, as it is fashionable to write now, crewless) allegedly could not get there. As the attack showed, they could. The security level of the port is still extremely low. The crews were sure that they were not in danger. Now for military sailors, the next two weeks will turn into service hell. “There will be checks on checks, organizational events, maintenance of combat readiness, installation of barriers, patrols, everyone will be put in pi ... dy on a daily basis,” says the officer of the Black Sea Fleet headquarters.
According to our information, the BDK was not the original target of the surface drone. The drone was supposed to attack a cargo ship with artillery on board, but when the Olenegorsk miner was discovered, clearly not ready to repel the attack, the cargo ship was exchanged for a large landing ship.
"Olenegorsk miner" was used by the fleet not only for military purposes. After the Crimean bridge was blown up, it transported tourists like a regular ferry (https://t.me/yigal_levin/52429). He also transported military cargo to the Zaporozhye region and the Crimea.
Despite claims by the Russian Defense Ministry that repairs would take only three weeks, the ship is unlikely to return to service before early October, according to naval sources.
And more attacks can be expected, so bulk carriers and tankers carrying military supplies to and from Novorossiysk should either not carry them or be prepared to receive a drone on board."
