Predicting a Russian military collapse already underway isn't necessary. Just listen to Russian soldiers' intercepted conversations is enough: https://www.youtube.com/@insightsfromukraineandrussia/videos

Or watching frozen hypothermic Russian soldiers not reacting to drone bombs: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-soldiers-are-freezing-to-death-in-eastern-ukraine/ar-AA14BIJq

Or Russian soldiers themselves:

https://news.yahoo.com/not-army-russian-soldier-warns-130423534.html

Collapsed militaries whose chain of command evaporates melt away and repatriate, as in Russia in 1918, Germany in 1945, France in 1940. Or they splinter into warlord-led gangs, as in the Freikorps in Germany and the Baltics in 1918-20, Russia's Streltsi in the late 17th century, China's warlord armies in the 1920s and 30s and the post Civil War Confederacy's KKK.

Russia's will follow one of these patterns, or a combination of the two. We can already glimpse this future privatization of violence in Prigozhin's PMC Wagner, whose neo-Nazi founder named for Hitler's favorite composer, and the tik tok warriors of Kadyrov's Chechen mercenaries.

As in the post-1991 dissolution of the USSR, the big problem will be loose nukes. But asking Ukraine to accept genocidal surrender and erasure because you're afraid of loose nukes is a moral and geopolitical absurdity.

First you said don't support Ukraine because it's corrupt and can't win.

Now you say don't support Ukraine because a Ukrainian victory is dangerous. Since you can't have it both ways, which is it? Choose.

I'm still waiting for a reply to Memorial's founder, Irina Scherbakova's no diplomacy is viable until Ukrainian victory thesis. Is the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize a warmonger too?