Owners equivalent rent is in the CPI and makes up about 15% of it. So home prices are indirectly in the CPI.

I own American, Canadian and EU apt REITs that are still undervalued at 10-20% <NAV: MAA, ESS, CPT, VNA, HOM.UN, BRNK. They still pay nice above historical average dividend yields and are not even close to bubblicious valuations yet. Rate cuts cause their share prices to rise, which means they can finance new projects at a lower cost of capital. The time lag to that new supply creating a bubble is several years.

You'll eventually be right. But there are at least a couple of years left to this rate cut cycle party. When yield hungry investors are piling into low yield REITs as bond proxies that sell at large premiums to NAV, you'll know the party's peaking.

Also, you're writing about the single family home market, which is not the entire residential market. Lower rates will displace demand from rental apts to SFHs, which, combined with new supply, will cap rent increases, easing the affordability crisis that has so many gainfully employed people living out of cars and middle income supercommuters getting up at 4 am to get to work by 8.

The zoning reforms that California has passed to create new supply have yet to spread to many other more NIMBY-istic states where single family homeowners fight tooth and nail against multi-family development. So we're a long way from bubblicious oversupply we had in 2005-07.