Many thanks for reading. Russia has a near perfect track record of catastrophic defeat against first world militaries when unaided by a western ally. Don't count the Ottomans in 1787-88 and 1878 as a first world military and remember Stalin's Tehran toast to American war production. Extractive kleptocracies have been making war incompetently since Persia 2500 years ago.

Now the question is whether Nato will supply Ukraine to win or to stalemate. Will Nato leaders see the endgame as the breakup of Russia's land-based colonial empire and Ukrainian victory as the trigger for Russia's other subjugated peoples to bolt and turn Russia into a normal country reduced to its historic ethnic Russian core?

Having lived in 5 countries in 7 languages, disparate fragmentation comes naturally.