It's not just me who believes it. Ask Yevgeny Prigozhin, who just said his troops won't submit to Shoigu's decree bringing Wagner under MoD command. In any military this is called mutiny, an offense leading to the firing squad. Gazprom's and other PMCs still haven't obeyed Shoigu's decree.

Putin needs Wagner, but can no longer control it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/03/14/russias-next-civil-war-has-already-begun/

If that's not a fractured military preparing for future state collapse like 1917-21, I don't know what is.

My goal in writing about it is evidence-based analysis.