Lester Golden
4 min readAug 21, 2023

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It's human nature to care more about nearby than distant neighbors. I'm in Schengen forever, living in Latvia half the year and Portugal half the year. Ukraine is a near neighbor whose current occupier is our former, and future would-be occupier. The idea that EU citizens should listen to a middle American in Colorado about where they should direct solidarity is utterly delusional. Remember a simple fact: the American empire that's a bully in Latin America is a savior in eastern Europe.

"western press quiet about it": Really?: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=niger+coup&atb=v310-1&ia=web

"They just don't tell us why we should worry"

--Here's why. In case you think the French are nasty: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=wagner+group+atrocities+in+africa&atb=v310-1&ia=web

"American and Russian oligarchs buying Russian state assets"--This is utterly false since Russian privatization certificates were issued only to Russian citizens. It was Russian oligarchs who bought up the certificates from Russian citizens who preferred to sell theirs. Did Chubais rig the game to favor his and Yeltsin's cronies? Certainly. Did the same thing happen in Latvia? Absolutely. The Communist Party was the mafia with a flag and in 1992 they changed the flag. But the idea that American oligarchs bought up Russian state assets is utter nonsense. Russian Klondike capitalism was actually made in and funded by USAID through the Harvard Institute for International Development, with Mr. Dunn's Russian useful idiot hero Jeffrey Sachs, a key figure behind the misguided shock therapy policy: https://www.thenation.com/article/world/harvard-boys-do-russia/

Dependency theory is outdated since it can't explain the differences in socio-economic and institutional outcomes between:

Chile and Argentina.

Venezuela and Costa Rica.

Uruguay vs Argentina.

Nogales, Mexico vs Nogales, Texas.

Nuevo Laredo, Mexico vs Laredo, Texas.

Hong Kong vs Shenzhen before 1979.

South and North Korea.

West and East Germany

Padova vs Palermo, Lecco vs Lecce

Read Why Nations Fail by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson instead: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=daron+acemoglu+why+nations+fail

The idea that Niger jumping from the French frying pan to the Wagner fire = "the global south fighting back" is utterly delusional. Niger's only way out is the Extractive Industries Transparency Iniative: https://eiti.org/. But the coup leaders aren't interested in that. They're just the usual kleptocratic African Big Men after power and Wagner is a convenient way to seize it.

Mr. Dunn is way behind the times and writing surreal nonsense if he thinks Niger will get better deal terms from Wagner than from a western multinational like Barrick or Rio Tinto. The deal terms in the mining industry are changing, with commodity producers banning exports of raw commodities and forcing miners to process where they extract:

"https://www.ft.com/content/0d2fba79-940f-4a28-8f4f-68f1e755200f

Where once some of these resource-rich countries were victims of exploitation that can date back to colonial times, now they are becoming empowered to take back control of their fates.

Just in the past 12 months, Zimbabwe and Namibia banned exports of raw lithium; Chile increased state control over lithium mining; while Mexico plunged its nascent lithium industry into uncertainty with a new review of mining concessions. Meanwhile, Indonesia added export controls on bauxite (a key ingredient in aluminium) to its pre-existing ban on exports of raw nickel ore.

“Every government will seek a deal with the mining industry that’s a fair one, that is a winner for the country and the winner for the industry,” says Jakob Stausholm, chief executive of Rio Tinto, which has itself recently been to the negotiating table in Chile and in Mongolia.

While he dismisses the idea that rising “nationalism” is behind this, he does acknowledge there has been a change. “It’s probably going to be more and more difficult just to mine and extract and export; very often a nation wants to have some processing facilities associated with the mining.”

The subtle shift in power towards the producers of sought-after battery metals is similar to other commodities shifts of the past, like the rise of coal during 19th century or the rise of tin during the 20th. But how far will producers go to take advantage of this moment? And how long can they make it last?

Indonesia’s opportunity

The poster child for harnessing value from materials is Indonesia, which produces nearly half of the world’s nickel, a key ingredient in electric car batteries.

Years of export controls on raw nickel have already succeeded in building an extensive domestic smelting industry, as well as battery plants and several electric vehicle factories.

After the country banned exports of raw nickel in 2014, it attracted more than $15bn of foreign investment in nickel processing, primarily from China. Today Indonesia has banned exports of everything from nickel ore to bauxite, with an export ban on copper concentrate coming into effect next year.

Not everyone agrees with these policies, however: the EU has challenged them at the World Trade Organization and won an initial hearing. Indonesia is appealing against the verdict.

But government officials say the country’s efforts to build domestic industry and encourage manufacturing are straight from the same playbook that western countries used a century ago.

“This is not something we are doing out of the blue,” says Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia. “We are learning from our developed country counterparts, who in the past have resorted to these unorthodox policies.”

Musk's coup: A delusional narcissistic Trumpster South African racist who paid $44n for Twitter doesn't make US policy.

The idea that Russia, a half millenium old land-based colonial empire built on genocidal conquest of 100+ peoples is anti-imperialist is delusional:

https://medium.com/lessons-from-history/know-your-russian-useful-idiot-genocide-apologists-a-and-b-800013dd4aed

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Lester Golden
Lester Golden

Written by Lester Golden

From Latvia & Porto I write to share learning from an academic&business life in 8 languages in 5 countries & seeing fascism die in Portugal&Spain in1974 & 1976.

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