In financial forecasting track record is all. You made a forex forecast. Show me your forecast's performance. That's not elitist, it's basic asset mgt benchmarking.
"one euro": Position size indicates conviction. Conviction creates credibility. Shorting 20m JPY in 2013 showed conviction. Shorting 1m JPY would not have.
You can write whatever forex forecasts you like without putting your money where your mouth is. But your readers should know whether or not you back up your thesis with conviction: your own money.
Screenshots: Interactive Brokers don't provide activity statements for decade old trades. But here's a sample: put options on FXY, the JPY ETF:
FXY 21DEC13 90.0 P 2 0 0.00676 -- 0.00 -1.35 0.00 0.00 -1.35
FXY 18JAN14 95.0 P 5 5 1.239856 2.382593 0.00 571.37 0.00 0.00 571.37
FXY 17JAN15 65.0 P 20 20 0.126968 0.178323 0.00 102.71 0.00 0.00 102.71
FXY 17JAN15 95.0 P 1 1 4.808204 5.880982 0.00 107.28 0.00 0.00 107.28
and the spot JPY short positions as of 02/2014 with unrealized gain of $32103:
JPY - -17,617,186.26 0.011615 204,627.25 0.009793 -172,523.34 32,103.91
JPY Debit Interest for Jan-2014 2014-02-05 -20,506 0.009856 202.12 0.009793 -200.81 1.30
JPY Debit Interest for Dec-2013 2014-01-06 -20,553 0.009595 197.20 0.009793 -201.27 -4.08
JPY Debit Interest for Nov-2013 2013-12-04 -19,859 0.009771 194.04 0.009793 -194.48 -0.44
JPY Debit Interest for Oct-2013 2013-11-05 -20,474 0.010152 207.85 0.009793 -200.50 7.35
JPY Debit Interest for Sep-2013 2013-10-03 -19,959 0.010281 205.20 0.009793 -195.46 9.74
JPY Debit Interest for Aug-2013 2013-09-05 -20,590 0.009988 205.65 0.009793 -201.64 4.02
JPY Debit Interest for Jul-2013 2013-08-05 -20,582 0.010173 209.38 0.009793 -201.56 7.82
JPY Debit Interest for Jun-2013 2013-07-03 -20,061 0.010009 200.79 0.009793 -196.46 4.34
JPY Debit Interest for May-2013 2013-06-05 -20,864 0.010095 210.62 0.009793 -204.32 6.30
JPY Debit Interest for Apr-2013 2013-05-03 -18,787 0.010099 189.73 0.009793 -183.98 5.75
Forex 20000 USD.JPY 2013-04-29, 16:16:05 -1,955,600 0.010226 19,997.50 0.009793 -19,151.00 846.50
JPY Debit Interest for Mar-2013 2013-04-03 -16,234 0.010747 174.47 0.009793 -158.98 15.49
Forex 30000 USD.JPY 2013-03-25, 13:43:26 -2,815,950 0.010653 29,997.50 0.009793 -27,576.32 2,421.18
JPY Debit Interest for Feb-2013 2013-03-05 -11,711 0.01072 125.54 0.009793 -114.68 10.86
Forex 30000 USD.JPY 2013-02-25, 16:08:00 -2,744,400 0.01093 29,997.50 0.009793 -26,875.63 3,121.87
Stock 100 9201.T 2013-02-20, 20:26:00 -439,351.2 0.01074 4,718.63 0.009793 -4,302.52 416.11
JPY Debit Interest for Jan-2013 2013-02-05 -12,744 0.010679 136.09 0.009793 -124.80 11.29
JPY Debit Interest for Dec-2012 2013-01-04 -12,779 0.011345 144.98 0.009793 -125.14 19.83
JPY Debit Interest for Nov-2012 2012-12-05 -12,332 0.012125 149.53 0.009793 -120.77 28.76
JPY Debit Interest for Oct-2012 2012-11-05 -12,780 0.012454 159.16 0.009793 -125.15 34.01
JPY Debit Interest for Sep-2012 2012-10-03 -12,385 0.012741 157.80 0.009793 -121.29 36.51
JPY Debit Interest for Aug-2012 2012-09-06 -12,765 0.012676 161.81 0.009793 -125.01 36.80
JPY Debit Interest for Jul-2012 2012-08-03 -13,818 0.012725 175.83 0.009793 -135.32 40.52
Forex 20000 USD.JPY 2012-07-23, 09:29:53 -1,565,080 0.012777 19,997.50 0.009793 -15,326.67 4,670.83
JPY Debit Interest for Jun-2012 2012-07-05 -13,830 0.012518 173.12 0.009793 -135.44 37.69
JPY Debit Interest for May-2012 2012-06-05 -13,897 0.012699 176.48 0.009793 -136.09 40.39
Forex 20000 USD.JPY 2012-05-04, 10:58:47 -1,597,600 0.012517 19,997.50 0.009793 -15,645.14 4,352.36
JPY Debit Interest for Apr-2012 2012-05-03 -7,092 0.012471 88.44 0.009793 -69.45 18.99
Forex 20000 USD.JPY 2012-04-27, 10:24:00 -1,608,680 0.012431 19,997.50 0.009793 -15,753.64 4,243.86
Forex 30000 USD.JPY 2012-04-23, 05:28:37 -2,431,350 0.012338 29,997.50 0.009793 -23,809.97 6,187.53
Forex 20000 USD.JPY 2012-04-16, 16:16:43 -1,608,460 0.012433 19,997.50 0.009793 -15,751.49 4,246.01
Activity Statement - February 6, 2014 Page: 25
Forex Positions
Forex 20000 USD.JPY 2012-04-06, 09:53:26 -496,113.06 0.012261 6,082.78 0.009793 -4,858.39 1,224.40
Readers can trust my forex track record or your pro-BRICS $ is doomed nonsense. You made a forex forecast with no evidence or track record to back it up. My forex trading goes back to shorting the $ in 1985-86 and shorting the GBP in the summer of 1992. Who's more credible?
What this discussion has to do with Gaza is beyond me.
