I'm one of those historians who Mr. Dunn says suck at prediction. My track is not perfect, but it's far superior to his and Code Pinkos'.

I predicted war on February 14:

https://medium.com/lessons-from-history/putins-empire-restoration-project-in-ukraine-f050a8ecc604

Then Putin started a war on my birthday, February 24. So I declared war on Putin and all those who support him--intentionally or not.

I raised 1500 euros from friends and family for a Ukrainian tech entrepreneur friend to coordinate 500 people working on the territorial defense of a network of 11 villages 9 km west of Kyiv (Belhorodka). What has Mr. Dunn to help the victims of Russia's genocidal war? He's never mentioned doing anything, so I assume nothing.

In April I predicted Russia's serf army would get its butt kicked by Ukraine's citizen army: https://medium.com/illumination-curated/ukraines-citizen-vs-russia-s-serf-army-4f6177d5fe20

2500 years of citizen armies defeating serf armies since the Greeks defeated the Persians at Marathon and Salamis told me what would happen.

In May my three veteran Borderlands veteran military historian friends, Sam P.N. Cook, who taught at West Point, Glen Grant, who advised the Ukrainian MoD for six years until 2020 and David Simms, predicted Ukraine would roll through Izyum: https://medium.com/illumination-curated/ukraines-startup-anti-platform-war-borderlands-veterans-podcast-may-12-8977213428ff

"It looks like upwards of 19 BTGs (Battalion Tactical Groups) were pushed out of Ukraine and back into Russia.

So some estimates I’ve seen only three Russian BTGs are still in Ukraine in that area holding on. And that’s probably just securing a couple of lines of communication for Russia to get all their stuff out. Some questions I have: what did those Russian BTG looks like?

We know they were already logistically challenged. So what are the effects of some new equipment that got in and put to use a lot faster than I thought it would be, in a couple of weeks. So what difference did that make on the battlefield, geometry on battlefield effects to help shape that up there?

And then what’s Russia going to do with those units? That’s the big question. Can they reconstitute them? Probably not. Can they reorganize and piecemeal them back together? Probably, and then reconstitute them further in the southeast near Donetsk.

I think…this is starting to roll the Russian line. Because right now it looks like Izium’s probably going to be the next push from Ukraine and that’s going to roll and Russia’s going to roll out of there as well. So ultimately, this causes Russia to readdress its aims and limit its scope (of operations) even more."

Fund managers have easy to measure track records. By any reasonable back test I and my historian friends have absolutely crushed Mr. Dunn's faux Historians' Index Fund and Mr. Dunn's long string of erroneous Russian useful idiocy, starting with "The War is a Manufactured Distraction" on February 26, continuing with "Ukraine should surrender" last April (I believe) and "Russia is winning" in July and August, just before Ukraine's Kharkiv counteroffensive.

If I could short or buy put options on securitized Dunn predictions, I'd be a multimillionaire. He's a better short than a Trump SPAC or Musk's Twitter shares.