Lester Golden
3 min readSep 28, 2023

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"If you laid every economist end to end around the world, you'd never reach a conclusion."--GB Shaw.

You're an economist who's forgotten that humans respond better to incentives than commands. Otherwise your moral crusade risks ending up in the same place as Savonarola or Trotsky:

Populism could derail the green transition

Western politicians are scared of a backlash against climate change policies that have been sold as good for the economy

https://www.ft.com/content/b9912ffe-08dd-4653-863c-21885d727d20

I have the luxury of not caring about the costs of a green transition. But most people don't and the gilets jaunes of the world will always outnumber you:

"https://www.ft.com/content/b9912ffe-08dd-4653-863c-21885d727d20

"The underlying problem is that most mainstream politicians have embraced a convenient half-truth about climate change. This holds that the journey to net zero is not only essential for the environment but will also be good for the economy. The jobs of the future, we are told, will be green jobs.

This is true, as far as it goes. But it glosses over the transitional costs. The switch away from fossil fuels is very expensive. As that reality kicks in, so opposition is growing from people who balk at the cost of giving up their old cars or replacing their gas boilers.

Matt Goodwin, an academic and populist activist, argues that the drive to net zero will provoke the “next big populist revolt in western politics”. As Goodwin points out, the British public supports net zero as an aspiration. But that support drops to 16 per cent if the transition involves an increase in household bills. Some 54 per cent place a higher priority on the cost of living than on net zero.

This should not be a surprising discovery. The gilets jaunes protests that rocked France were initially triggered by a rise in green fuel duties. A quote (possibly apocryphal) from a protester summed up the dilemma: “They talk about the end of the world. We are talking about the end of the week.”

This year it is Germany’s turn. Government plans to outlaw the installation of new gas boilers in favour of heat pumps caused a backlash from consumers who risked getting stuck with huge bills. That helped provoke a surge in the polls for the far-right Alternative for Germany, which denounces the “green fascism” of the German elite. The government has now reluctantly slowed down the transition to heat pumps.

As European governments hesitate to take the politically unpopular measures required to achieve net zero, the EU’s much-ballyhooed “Green New Deal” is coming under intense pressure. As the FT reported this week, its key provisions are being watered down or delayed amid backlash from industry, farmers and companies.

The Biden administration risks being caught in a similar squeeze. The theory behind Bidenomics is that US government subsidies will help to create lots of high-paying industrial jobs, in new green industries. It sounds like a win-win. But the current auto workers strike is driven, in large part, by fears that the transition from petrol cars to electric vehicles will involve considerable lay-offs, and that the new jobs may not pay as well as the old ones.

In the US, the populist right is already in full cry against net zero. Donald Trump is likely to take advantage in the 2024 presidential election. But the politics of net zero do not point only in one direction. Politicians who abandon the fight against global warming also risk being punished, particularly by middle-class and affluent voters."

Instead of cancelling the entire legal system, you might help the plaintiffs in this case. From the Financial Times:

Portugal’s Gen-Z sues dozens of governments over climate change

Six plaintiffs aged 11-24 have taken legal action at the European Court of Human Rights

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Lester Golden
Lester Golden

Written by Lester Golden

From Latvia & Porto I write to share learning from an academic&business life in 8 languages in 5 countries & seeing fascism die in Portugal&Spain in1974 & 1976.

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