Lester Golden
2 min readDec 21, 2021

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If you forecast a crash and tell readers the stock market is a scam, you're telling them to time the market and get out. That is investment advice by any reasonable standard if you don't publish a disclaimer that says what you write about financial markets is for entertainment and educational purposes only.

For dumb money the stock market has always been a scam. I have the financial scars from being dumb money, which I wrote about in a series called How Not to be Dumb Money. Michael Lewis of Liar's Poker and Big Short fame made this clear: the stock market is a mechanism for transferring money from the weak to the strong. Short time horizon = weak. Long time horizon = strong.

Of course there's much more to life than money. Health is always first in any sensible person's hierarchy of needs. That's why I spend 3 hours/day on my mountain bike in the beachfront forest national park in Latvia next to our apt.

Money is only important if you don't have any. Those who age without investments that enable them to live off their money will have to live off selling their labor.

Your article advised readers to get out of the stock market to avoid the latter outcome. Financial history shows that investors with the time to wait out market cycles do better than market timers. Even at 66 I likely have that much time. Absent empirical evidence to the contrary that stands up to backtesting through at least two market cycles, advising younger readers to get out of the stock market instead of investing in a market of undervalued stocks raises the probability they will not accumulate enough capital to live on when they reach my age or older unless you provide an alternative investment that will make similar returns.

This is all the more necessary in the neo-feudal plutocrats' plantation winners take all version of American capitalism that has obliterated the postwar opportunity society I grew up in. To survive the tomorrow offered by this socialism for the rich oligarchic system I used geographic arbitrage: western income with eastern European cost of living. Telling readers that they're unethical for using the magic of compounding to pick off the few crumbs available from the plutocrats' table filled with cake doesn't help their financial planning.

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Lester Golden
Lester Golden

Written by Lester Golden

From Latvia & Porto I write to share learning from an academic&business life in 8 languages in 5 countries & seeing fascism die in Portugal&Spain in1974 & 1976.

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