If war is politics fought by other means, Russia has already lost. It failed to reach its prime genocidal objective: erasing Ukraine off the map and Ukrainians as Ukrainians.
Since reconciliation without truth and responsibility is impossible, politically, Russia has lost Ukraine forever. Russia and the Russian people will NEVER take responsibility for their war crimes as Germany did. Russia will make the Yasukuni shrine visiting and reparations-rejecting Japanese look like a model of accountability.
That Russia has already lost doesn't mean Ukraine has yet won. That victory requires consistency of supply by the western coalition so Ukraine can properly plan operations and cut the land bridge to Crimea in Melitopol. Putin's remaining legitimacy as the restorer of Russian Crimea won't survive the end of Russian Crimea. In the resulting power struggle it's an open question who will prevail: the Dugin and Strelkov-type ultranationalists or the realists among the FSB and Defense Ministry Siloviki who want to save themselves and the Russian Federation from further disintegration through an armistice and total withdrawal from Ukraine.
If western support is sustained despite the useful idiots like tiki-torched Tucker, MTG, Trump, Berlusconi, Orban, LePen, Paul, Vance etc, Ukraine's final victory will likely come after the disintegration of the Russian military's chain of command and state security apparatus. This has already begun if you look at the shift in the balance of power between the state's official army and Prigozhin's PMC Wagner army (50k soldiers costing $100m/month) and its superior armaments. The symptoms are there for those who care to look: political posturing and positioning by future warlords like Prigozhin, partisan sabotage of oil and gas infrastructure, big growth in air crashes due to sanctions-driven spare parts cannibalization, growing secession talk in Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and other commodity rich republics, warnings of economic collapse and "reverse industralization" by the Russian central bank.
So, yes I know who will win the war since its political outcome has already been decided: war has cemented and made permanent Ukraine's political independence and national identity, just as the Civil War made American unity non-contingent, non-negotiable and irrevocable. Now it's just a matter of time to enable the military reality to catch up to the political outcome.
