I hope for a mostly peaceful 1991-type dissolution of the Russian empire, but fear a Yugoslavia type breakup in some regions. As in 1989-91, the American foreign policy blob, fears a dissolution of Russia. No policymaker in the Pentagon, the NSA, CIA or the State Dept hopes for a Yugoslavia-style "problem from hell" to be put on his plate. The American foreign policy elite is still in the same place as Bush 1.0 in his "Chicken Kiev" speech that told the Ukrainians not to secede from the USSR. But the more realistic Hudson Institute and other think tanks are telling the Blob to prepare for Russia's political fragmentation. https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/preparing-final-collapse-soviet-union-dissolution-russian-federation
Russian dissidents such as Kasparov and Khodorkovsky now begin to assume that Russia must become a genuinely voluntary federation. Why that may not be possible from an American living in Ukraine:
You mean it wasn’t really a “Union”, but more of “Russia and a bunch of land-border colonies?” Yes, that’s what it was…
June 15, 1940 — USSR annexes Lithuania, giving an ultimatum that they form a “friendly” government and admit an unlimited number of Soviet troops. The county was occupied. USSR staged fake elections, fake winners then requested inclusion into USSR. 70,000 deported to Siberia. That was just the first phase, it gets worse after that.
June 17, 1940 — USSR annexes Latvia, holds an election where only one candidate is allowed. 35,000 deported to gulags. 100,000 fled to Sweden before the Soviets returned after the Nazis were defeated. That was just the first phase, it gets worse after that.
August 6, 1940 — USSR formally annexes Estonia. 1,750 killed for resisting, 7,450 killed during the occupation, 10,200 sent to gulags, 35,000 forced into the army. That was just the first phase, it gets worse after that.
I want to include Ukraine on this list, but where to start? 1720,when Peter I banned the Ukrainian language? In 1762 when Catherine II started conflict with the Hetmantate? 1831 when Nicholas I restarted the cultural genocide left unfinished by Catherine… That was just the first phase, it gets worse after that.
1830’s — 1860’s when Russia attacked Kazakhstan, eliminating the khanate and installing their own, ethnically Russian rulers?
1828, when Russia occupied Armenia after acquiring it in a war against Iran? or 29 November, 1920 — Russian Red Army attacks and occupies Armenia, claiming that it was inclined towards the west and too friendly with American president Wilson. Sound familiar? Thousands sent to prison camps or executed for expressing Armenian culture or lacking sufficient loyalty to Stalin. That was just the first phase, it gets worse after that.
April, 1920 — Russia invades Azerbaijan, the official excuse is that the Azeri government didn’t raise troops to assist Russia. Azerbaijan demanded Russia recognize their status as an independent nation, and Russia refused. War ensued. That was just the first phase, it gets worse after that.
And so on…
So, before you go talking about all those provocations and how everything is the fault of the West, take a good long look at this list, and ask yourself…
When given the choice, how many of those nations chose to remain as Russian colonies when given the chance to break free?
Zero.
