Had Zelenskiy's "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition" fallen on deaf ears, the Ukrainaisn would have turned back the initial assault on Kyiv. Russian war crimes in Bucha, Irpin and Mariupol would have united Ukrainians determination to fight. But it would have been much worse due to the war turning into a counterinsurgency war by Russia. More of the east would have fallen to Russia and Kharkiv might have become another more gigantic Grozny/Mariupol. Russian policy is to Groznify any Ukrainian city that resists.

Russia would have respected any agreement signed as it respected the Budapest Memorandum or how Hitler respected the Munich agreement--occupying the rest of Czechoslovakia six months later.

With FSB operatives like Girkin and Gubarev in the Donbass, no Minsk agreement was enforceable.

Yes, Russia is the clear aggressor since 1656, never mind 2014, as the Daily Sceptic article about the Swiss charlatan Jacques Baud made clear: https://dailysceptic.org/2022/05/22/how-accurate-is-jacques-bauds-analysis-of-the-war-in-ukraine/

Ask the Cossacks who complained about the Russian Tsar breaking the contract. The pattern is always the same and predates Minsky by 3 1/2 centuries.