Both. Rev up your speculative history counterfactuals engine to see how.

The American Revolution was a catastrophe for Native Americans and black slaves. The royal navy's enforcement of the empire's abolition of the slave trade and slavery after 1833 would have brought emancipation sooner than 1865 to American slaves. Andrew Jackson's genocidal Trail of Tears forced march of the Cherokee would never have happened.

These are structural trends not subject to random changes in individual actions.

Then, on the other hand, imagine the British lose America because:

1. There is no random fog to protect Washington's army crossing to Staten Island after defeat in the 1776 Battle of Long Island from discovery by the royal navy in NY harbor.

2. John Adams still spends nearly two years in Amsterdam and Den Haag negotiating the Dutch financing of a $7m bond issue at a 7% (junk rated) coupon in 1781 that causes Britain to give up.

3. The French still bankrupt themselves aiding the American rebels, sowing the seeds of revolutionary victory at Yorktown and revolution in France.

4. The victorious rebels still plagiarize the Iroquois/Five Nations Great Law of Peace to create a constitution and land speculator General Washington still leaves power voluntarily after two terms as president, inspiring George III to call him "the greatest man in the world."

So the rebels win the revolutionary war and still inspire the French Revolution, the Haitian slave revolts and Spanish America's Simon Bolivar-led wars of independence. Bolivar's warning to the newly independent Spanish American republics about the dangerous and aggressively expansionist English-speaking republic to the north still stands--at least until it splits in two over the slavery question.

But the southern side of the revolution that's a reactionary slaveholders' rebellion ("the loudest yelps of liberty from the drivers of negroes"--Samuel Johnson) , the Confederacy, wins the civil war by merely not losing. Here's how: When Lincoln visits Fort Stephens during Jubal Early's July 1864 raid on Washington Lt. Oliver Wendell Holmes isn't there to shout, "get down you damn fool!" and the Confederate sniper that kills the army surgeon standing next to Lincoln also kills the president. McClellan wins the 1864 election on a compromise peace platform.

So slavery endures into the 1890s or longer, with the CSA as one of two expansionist states in North America, both attracting interventionist attention from rival European powers. France supports the Union and rival Germany the CSA after applying its lessons learned in the civil war in the Franco-Prussian War. The Union enters into a federation with Canada after 1867, in effect, rejoining the British Empire in a home rule status similar to Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

There are no presidents Teddy and Franklin Roosevelt. Both halves of the DUSA (Disunited States of America) remain plutocrats plantations because there are no Roosevelts to save capitalism from the capitalists, no president FDR to say of his economic royalist opponents, "I welcome their hatred." There's no Teddy Roosevelt to trustbust Standard Oil into breakup, no New Deal (no TVA, WPA, CCC), no GI Bill, no government-supported mortgage and housing market, no Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, no SEC, no FTC and no Manhattan Project. Instead a Germany and Austria not ruled by Nazis extends Bismarck's "steal the socialists' thunder" welfare state and public investments. It also never exiles all those German and Hungarian Jewish physicists and is the first state to develop an atomic bomb, a project designed to checkmate all potential rivals--Japan, the French and British Empires weakened by German-supported jihadi revolts in Egypt, Iraq, Algeria, Tunisia and the Muslim areas of the Dutch East Indies and India. The 1919 Afghan jihadi revolt that gave it nominal independence also takes what we know as Pakistan with it.

The slaveholding CSA is now free to annex Cuba and Puerto Rico in a war with Spain, while Japan annexes the Philippines in an alliance with the CSA.

Japan exploits British, French and Dutch postwar (not post WWI since there's no WWII) weakness to create its Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere in China, Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, Burma, Singapore, Malaysia and Indochina. There is no American embargo against Japan because there's no unified America standing in its way and no American naval bases at Pearl Harbor and the Philippines. A nominally independent Hawaii is a protectorate of Japan's ally Germany.

In 1917 there is no USA to intervene against a Germany victorious in The Great War. The March 1918 Russo-German Brest-Litovsk treaty remains in force, amputating Ukraine from the USSR. As a result a weakened Bolshevik regime loses the Russian Civil War, with Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky and the rest of the gang returning to exile. No Bolshevik threat and a German victory means no Freikorps as a vanguard of a non-existent Nazi Party.

With no American "Lafayette we are here" to save France, an embittered amputated twice-defeated France sinks into extremism and civil war that makes the Paris Commune of 1870-71 look like a Sunday picnic.

The Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires avoid collapse by joining a German-led Europaische Gemeinschaft--that creates a continental common market. Yugoslavia never breaks up into genocidal war because it never exists. The Baltic peoples and Poland are annexed by Germany. Baltdeutscher Alfred Rosenberg never leaves Riga to become a Nazi racial ideologist and Corporal Adolf Hitler stays in the warm communal of the Kaiser's army, seeing no other prospects for gainful employment outside it. He's posted to German-occupied Riga, where he meets Rosenberg in a cafe to talk about the portraits of the Baltdeutschergrafen in the guildhall. The Tsar's Latvian riflemen never successfully defended Riga in December 1915 and never assaulted the Winter Palace in October 1917. Riga's still a German city, as it has been since it's founding in 1201. The twin totalitarian monsters of the 20th century--the Freikorps into Nazism and Bolshevism--both born in Riga, remain stillborn.

But Bismarck's aphorism that "the decisive fact of modern life is that North America speaks English" remains true. German, like Russian, remains a hard to export language because it insists on conjugating nouns, which English stopped doing after Shakespeare. The German language is as Germans think: when give an choice between precision and efficiency they choose the former.

Their over-engineered Tiger tanks' woeful performance in the December 1944 Battle of the Bulge perfectly illustrate this principle of Das Deutsche Grundlichkeit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O02RrKCZ64Y&t=15s

Life is too short to learn German, which will always put a lid on German soft power. https://medium.com/illumination-curated/life-is-too-short-to-learn-german-b561a5c8fc05