Black Swans are always unquantifiable. Only turning the Zaporizhia NPP would trigger Article 5. Wagner's takeover of Rostov tells us we might see this nonviolent endgame from new NATO member Finland taking a page out of Putin's Crimea 2014 referendum playbook. Why fight if it's much cheaper to bribe and buy votes: https://medium.com/illumination-curated/april-25-russia-ukraine-endgame-2b564512f8c5

Here's one version of why Putin prefers to lose to satanic NATO instead of Little Russian kholki: https://medium.com/illumination-curated/zelenskyy-and-nato-fire-trans-stiletto-missiles-at-russia-13f2c272d83b