Actually, Mr. Dunn just wrote that "the historians suck at predicting". Interesting way to show respect.
What he doesn't want you to read is his failed forecasts: https://medium.com/@scottcdunn/the-war-in-ukraine-is-a-manufactured-distraction-817166c4e02a
"Russia letting up": Pure data ignorance. Their shell us count is down 75% since the peak. Having to use a 1 ton anti-ship missile designed to sink aircraft carriers to pointlessly hit a 9 story apt block because they're running out of precision guilded missiles is clear sign of military failure. Claiming conquest of the same Bakhmut garbage dump and petrol station and the same salt mine village four times is a clear sign of military failure. In fear of Ukrainian drones, most of their navy hides in Novorossisk. Can't wait for the Norwegians to interview the Wagner PMC escapee.
"We could just stop the war by agreeing to end it"
--Only by abandoning Ukraine, which is what Russian useful idiot Mr. Dunn wants.
Mr. Dunn also has no idea where the term BRICS comes from. It's from a wildly overoptimistic Goldman investment banker report in 2001 designed to pitch bubblicious emerging market investments to Goldman's clients: https://www.goldmansachs.com/our-firm/history/moments/2001-brics.html
In our age of the return of geopolitics, deglobalization, reshoring and friendshoring it's completely obsolete. The BRICS nations have nothing in common with each other like the rule of law market economies of the institutional West (the EU, NATO, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand, Lula's, but not Bolsonaro's Brazil). They have no trade agreements or common trade policies, no common central bank or currency, like most of the EU, no common defense policy and most still use the $ as the world's reserve currency.
Here's a simple fact of life that explains the last 400 years: the Dutch invented the modern world when they created the bond market and the fiscal military state that defeated the Spaniards, the English copied them starting in 1688 when William of Orange invaded England with an armada 2x the size of Spain's 100 years earlier, and the Americans copied the copy--Alexander Hamilton called the treasury market "Dutch finance".
Everyone else adapts and adopts some variation of the Dutch model, or stays poor. https://medium.com/lessons-from-history/the-modern-world-a-dutch-invention-the-english-copy-fda9ced7a6b8
File complaints about this simple fact under these categories:
1. Right wing populist anti-globalist Trumpsters, Orbanistas and LePenistes who blame free trade, the EU and Soros (code for Jews).
2. Lefty populist anti-globalists who'd love to simply forget how capitalism has lifted 1.5bn people out of poverty since the fall of the Berlin Wall and how the system's self-correcting, generating its own traitors who save capitalism from the capitalists (the Roosevelts).
https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/youre-not-a-capitalist-until-84870880fbf0
Institutionally, there's no such thing as a multipolar world, as the authors of the book Why Nations Fail: the Origins of Power, Poverty and Prosperity make clear (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsZDlBU36n0&t=3s).
Capitalism is an awful system, except for all the others that have been tried. Same for democracy.
