#2, Stalemate and your evaluation as of Nov 18, is militarily illiterate nonsense aligned with the Russian army spokesman Bakhmut Bob.
Russia's army has culminated and is incapable of mounting a real offensive. Wagner PMC has spent 4000 convict mercenaries to conquer a garbage dump, since lost again.
Ukraine has repeatedly struck Russian air force bases deep inside Russia, is preparing to cut the land bridge to Crimea through Melitopol and getting close to the Kreminna logistics hub.
#8 would be like Caligula murdering his mother.
Tech bros just love GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out) algo-writing from faulty biased assumptions.
"It doesn't matter how we got to the current state": This is ahistorical nonsense since Putin is motivated by the collective narcissism of mythologized Russian history. But since you've never read a book of Russian history, you would not know this.